In an article for ZN.UA, we shared our findings on how Russians viewed yet another election to the State Duma.

‍

Russia has completed three days of voting in the State Duma election. According to Russia’s Central Election Commission, United Russia received 57.83% of the vote and 355 of the 450 seats in the State Duma. By comparison, an exit poll conducted by the VCIOM Analytical Center and released immediately after voting ended put the party’s result at 49.4%. At the same time, distrust in the electoral process and criticism of the authorities prevailed in the Russian regional communities included in our sample ahead of the election.

These findings come from monitoring conducted by the NGO Join Ukraine, which covered 536 regional communities on VK and 428 Telegram channels across Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine from September 7-13.

In a sample of 220 comments under election-related posts across 53 Russian regions, 75% of all likes went to comments expressing critical or negative views about the elections, the authorities, and United Russia. This figure refers specifically to the share of likes within this sample, not to 75% of Russians: a single comment could contain several different points.

The largest share of likes — 20% — went to comments arguing that the election result had already been decided and that voting would change nothing. Another 16% went to comments expressing the view “anyone but United Russia.” A further 11% went to criticism of lawmakers, 10% to demands that authorities solve problems with roads and fuel first, 7% to complaints about pressure on public-sector employees, and 6% to comments saying that people did not know the candidates and had no one to vote for. Only 2% of likes went to comments expressing support for United Russia.

One of the main information triggers ahead of the election was a VCIOM forecast. On September 10, pollsters projected a result of more than 50% for United Russia, while in regional communities this forecast was perceived not as a routine polling estimate but as an outcome that had already been decided. Commenters wrote that the percentages had already been “drawn up” and that voting would change nothing.

Election-related posts also became a space for discussing everyday problems — fuel shortages, the condition of roads, and the performance of local authorities. Instead of discussing candidates’ platforms, conversations often shifted to complaints about how the authorities were dealing with problems in the regions. Analysts also recorded complaints about pressure on public-sector employees, teachers, and kindergarten staff, who, according to commenters, were being forced to take part in the work of election commissions or to vote.

“Our monitoring shows one simple thing: Russians do not see these elections as a real opportunity to change anything. They do not know the candidates, see no competition, and already regard the outcome as predetermined. Once the results were announced, this distrust only received further confirmation. In such a system, the choice remains on the ballot, but does not translate into any real change in government,” says Yuliia Yelenich, a Join Ukraine analyst covering Russia.

Join Ukraine’s monitoring systematically tracks reactions in Russian regional communities, focusing on critical and negative posts as indicators of irritation, fear, and discontent.